Giro d'Italia Stage 20 Preview

Giro d’Italia Stage 21 Preview

Course:

Though the dust may have settled on this year’s battle for the maglia rosa, Stage 21 provides one final opportunity for riders and teams to make their presence here worthwhile after three weeks of racing. The 163km trip from Cuneo to Torino shall be processional for the most part, but plenty will have learnt from last year’s closing stage that it is far from a nailed on sprint for the sprinters who still remain. Only two of the handful of riders originally earmarked to contest the points jersey classification remain in this contest, meaning today could prove a difficult end to the Giro as late breakaways attempt to steal the show.

Giro d'Italia Stage 21 Preview

Contenders:

Giacomo Nizzolo faces the possibility of chalking up another red jersey victory without having actually won a single stage of the Giro d’Italia. Sacha Modolo is his only true rival and does not seem to have been sprinting at the same level as Nizzolo this year, but does possess a better leadout team as we reach the final day. Nizzolo has lost both Fabian Cancellara and Boy Van Poppel from his train and has already experienced how hard it is to control the peloton in the final kilometres of a flat stage; Roger Klüge the beneficiary of this last time the sprinters had an eye on victory. Last year’s concluding stage was plagued with punctures and provided a technical course which benefited the breakaway attacks by hampering the pursuit from behind, but 2016’s simpler finishing circuit should provide Nizzolo with greater hopes of winning at last.

Sacha Modolo has not been far off the pace of Nizzolo at this year’s race, but struggled to realistically compete during the first week as a result of an inferior Lampre-Merida team compared to last year. Regardless, Modolo has the better leadout train here and will look to capitalise upon a couple of late turns to dominate the front of the peloton before opening up his sprint. Nizzolo is likely to be glued to Modolo’s wheel in the final kilometres, but if he chooses the moment right to light things up, Modolo still has a great chance of winning.

Matteo Trentin shall pick up the mantle here for Etixx-Quick Step and hope to mix it up in the sprint finish while Nizzolo and Modolo are busy watching one another. Trentin has a fantastic turn of speed despite not being a pure sprinter and might just see his odds of winning improve after another attritional Giro d’Italia sees riders pay the price.

Alexander Porsev has sustained an impressive string of results at this year’s Giro, even though his team’s focus has very much been upon mountain goat Ilnur Zakarin. It will be fascinating to see what he can do with the full team at his disposal now, so do not be overly surprised if he pulls off an upset today.

Nikias Arndt warrants a deserved mention for this final stage after placing just behind Giacomo Nizzolo after Roger Kluge stole the show on Stage 17. He has the potential to build upon Lampre-Merida and Trek-Segafredo’s desire to do the most work, so should only need to emerge in the concluding 500 meters as the stage is contested.

The breakaway has a good chance of staying clear late on today, but late moves have a greater potential of going all the way, so look to Daniel OssRick Zabel, Jose Joaquin RojasRoger KlugeRamunas Navarduaskas and Nicola Boem join the moves.

Outcome:

1st Giacomo Nizzolo 2nd Sacha Modolo 3rd Nikias Arndt

Advertisements
Giro d'Italia Stage 20 Preview

Giro d’Italia Stage 20 Preview

Course:

Instead of providing us with drama drip by drip throughout this grand tour, yesterday’s stage felt as if the Giro d’Italia had decided to serve up everything in one go; crashes, abandonments, a maglia rosa lost and a champion resurrected. Ilnur Zakarin left the race with a broken collarbone, while Steve Kruijswijk lost possession of the pink jersey after crashing into a snow bank and now appears set to abandon having sustained a fractured rib. Today is the final day in the mountains and thus the last chance for a rider to win this race with one last gasp attack when it counts most. The short 134km stage from Guillestre is sure to be explosive, taking in three Category 1 ascents, then finishing upon a Category 3 climb all the way up to the finish line at Sant’Anna di Vinadio. The general classification now sees its top four riders all within two minutes of one another and only the processional ride into Torino is left beyond today; the fuse is lit here and it wont be long until the Alps echo with a bang.

T15_MadonnaDC_2_alt

Contenders:

Vincenzo Nibali has once again revived a grand tour campaign from the brink of demise with one fantastic day in the saddle. The Italian champion dropped all of his rivals on Stage 19 and is now within touching distance of placing the pink jersey upon his shoulders with the last arduous mountain trial before Torino. Much of Nibali’s potential success today will be dependent upon another strong performance from his Astana teammates, who on this crucial stage, are anticipated to make life hell early on. The plan will be to isolate Esteban Chaves by dispatching his limited Orica-GreenEDGE support before the battle for the maglia rosa has even really started. Nibali’s performances in the third week of a grand tour have often been unrivalled and it certainly looked that way again, Chaves unable to follow him in the final moments of yesterday’s stage. The finale itself suits his Colombian rival neatly and Chaves will focus upon riding defensively throughout the day in order to conserve energy, so Nibali will need to have recovered well from yesterday’s efforts in order to gain enough time to take the pink jersey; do not forget the ten second time bonus for the stage winner too.

Esteban Chaves came the closest we have seen to truly blowing up at this year’s Giro d’Italia, but maintained a steady enough pace to come home third and take the leader’s jersey with one final test remaining. As mentioned previously, Chaves is likely to become isolated very early on here as Astana whittle down his support as soon as possible. Due to being race leader though, Chaves needs only to follow the attacks of the day; easier said than done. Should he approach the line alongside the likes of Nibali, he may just edge out the Italian on a finale which suits him well.

Alejandro Valverde has been unable to stick the pace of the true overall contenders for the Giro title, but will be confident of sealing another podium place at a grand tour by the end of Stage 20. The Movistar leader even has a chance of another stage win if he makes it to the line within the lead group; the uphill run being the ideal terrain for Valverde’s turn of pace.

Mikel Nieve finished second yesterday after pacing his final ascent very well indeed, his performance also sets him up well as the lead protagonist in today’s sub-plot; the mountains classification. It seems certain that Nieve will join the breakaway and aim to sweep up the large amount of points on offer throughout the stage to take the maglia azzura on the last day in the Alps. Current leader Damiano Cunego will need to follow Nieve or use teammates to try and protect his lead in the competition, but his chances look slim after a poor showing yesterday suggested he may have finally cracked.

Two breakaway candidates who have still yet to secure an elusive win are Joe Dombrowski and Darwin Atapuma. Both have shown they have the form to do so, yet have been unlucky to not make the grade, especially Atapuma on Stage 14. With today’s stage their final opportunity to steal a win from the general classification riders, it is likely both men will be in the day’s move.

Outcome:

1st Vincenzo Nibali 2nd Esteban Chaves 3rd Mikel Nieve

Maglia Rosa – Vincenzo Nibali

Maglia Azzura – Mikel Nieve

Giro d'Italia Stage 20 Preview

Giro d’Italia Stage 19 Preview

Course:

Yesterday proved to be a more tame affair than anticipated for the general classification contenders, instead they were pleased to allow the day’s breakaway to acquire a lengthy lead and decide the stage’s outcome from within their ranks. Having kept their powder dry yesterday, today’s first of two stages in the Alps should see life at the front of the general classification animated once again in 2016’s Giro d’Italia. Stage 19 comprises a 162km trip from Pinerolo to Risoul, spending the majority of time creeping upwards for around 80km, ultimately concluding with the 12.8km ascent to Risoul.

Giro d'Italia Stage 19 Preview

Giro d'Italia Stage 19 Preview

Giro d'Italia Stage 19 PreviewGiro d'Italia Stage 19 Preview

 

Contenders:

Steven Kruijswijk appears to have cemented himself as the strongest climber in this race after all attempts so far from his rivals have failed to crack him. Though he may not be directly pursuing this stage as a target for victory, the impetus of other general classification focused teams is likely to reel in the breakaway late on and may inadvertently set the Dutchman up for victory. The climb to Risoul is relatively consistent throughout its ascent and should subsequently play to the strengths of the Dutchman; marking him out as the most likely GC rider to win here.

Esteban Chaves is still relatively unconfirmed in regards to surviving the concluding week of a grand tour, but is certainly one of the best climbers here on paper at least. It looks like it will take a perfectly timed and potent attack to finally drop Kruijswijk, so his chances of a stage win are more realistic if he sits back within the lead general classification group and aim to beat the rest in an uphill dash.

Ilnur Zakarin looks to be gaining strength as the race enters its final decisive moments and could well be in search of an opportunity to gain time on his rivals and step up to the podium. The Russian’s chances of succeeding here increase the longer we have to wait for action from the overall contenders, Zakarin likely to come unstuck if the tempo increases too early on the final climb. Should the action remain limited until the final few kilometres however, Zakarin will be one of the favourites to take time and possibly a stage win.

Darwin Atapuma will be aware that a good performance on Stage 19 will place him firmly in the mix to win the mountains classification jersey at this year’s Giro d’Italia. His performance upon the queen stage deserved the win, but he was robbed by Esteban Chaves and his fellow escapees in the final kilometres. With a showing such as that already in the bag, there is no doubt that Atapuma could go the whole way today and win.

Sky are still searching hard for another victory and are likely to turn to the likes of Nicloas Roche and David Lopez. Both have demonstrated encouraging signs in the last few days, be it sticking with the GC frontrunners or turning in solid breakaway efforts, thus marking them out as clear contenders. It may also be worth keeping an eye upon Philip Deignan, the Irishman has been anonymous up to now and subsequently makes him a very difficult rider to assess, but his ability to climb should be enough to keep him in the mind of Sky.

Giovanni Visconti saved his efforts yesterday and is thus likely to have an eye upon a good performance here in an attempt to make gains in the mountains classification; much like Atapuma. If he is totally focused upon accumulating points, then it is likely he will be out of contention for the stage win as a result of doing his utmost to be first over the Colle Dell’Agnello. Should events develop in a manner which see him part of a lead group deciding the win, then Visconti’s sprinting ability could be enough to better most rivals.

For further breakaway contenders; Tanel KangertIan Boswell, Joe DombrowskiBlel Kadri, Giulio CicconeRubén Plaza and Amets Txurruka could all play a part.

Outcome:

1st Steven Kruijswijk 2nd Esteban Chaves 3rd Ilnur Zakarin

Breakaway: 1st Darwin Atapuma 2nd Giovanni Visconti 3rd Philip Deignan

Giro d'Italia Stage 20 Preview

Giro d’Italia Stage 18 Preview

Course:

The breakaway caused a huge shock yesterday after an acute lack of coherent chasing during the final kilometres ultimately conceded the day’s outcome by the sprinters, primarily due to a single well timed attack from Roger Kluge after the final corner. Today’s stage will be a manic affair once again, a long flat opening set to provoke rolling attacks from riders desperate to make it into the day’s breakaway, but it is the finale which causes the most interest. The 240km route from Muggió to Pinerolo features little in the way of challenges for the most part, but the climb of Pramartino will demand an immense effort to surge over its near 20% gradients and could instigate attacks from amongst the general classification rivals.

Giro d'Italia Stage 18 Preview

Giro d'Italia Stage 18 Preview

Contenders:

Giovanni Visconti is likely to take centre stage for Movistar on Stage 18, as though the finale does suit Alejandro Valverde, the Spanish outfit will look to limit their team’s efforts in regards to chasing ahead of further stresses in the mountains. Visconti is in good form thus far at this year’s Giro d’Italia and possesses the required skills to perform convincingly here; climbing, descending and sprinting better that many favourites to make the break today.

Tanel Kangert can definitely feature late on here if he manages to join the right move early on, potentially picking up a rare win at this year’s Giro for Astana. The Estonian rider is certainly strong enough to power over the Pramartino climb, though it shall take an immense effort during the early part of the day to join the decisive move.

Gianluca Brambilla has already enjoyed a successful Giro d’Italia when taking a stage victory and thus wore the maglia rosa for a short time. The Italian is likely to have seen his powers diminish somewhat, though at this point of the race few remain in the condition they entered in, but this stage is very well suited to his attributes. Like many here, the ability to perform well on the Pramartino climb is only half of the equation, as the lighter climbers like Brambilla still face the tough task of joining the day’s move amid a hectic start.

Nicolas Roche is likely to pick up the mantle of saving Sky’s Giro today, the Irishman being plenty strong enough to survive the fast paced opening section, while also having enough to survive the final climb in a position which should keep him in contention. Roche can also deliver a good sprint when required, but this is a well known fact, so he might find it difficult to acquire riders willing to join him out front all day.

A raft of riders are likely to invest the utmost in featuring in Stage 18’s battle for stage honours; Tim WellensJelle VanendertGeorg Preidler, Francesco BongiornoDiego Ullisi and Moreno Moser all potentially making the day’s moves.

Beyond the victor, the most interesting aspect of today is how the general classification riders will tackle the ascent up the steep Pramartino climb. Blessed with the title of ‘The Shark of Messina’, Nibali should know plenty about tasting blood, but on this occasion it is his rivals who sense that he himself is wounded. The result of this might be a concerted effort by both Esteban Chaves and Ilnur Zakarin to bury the Italian champion with a single well timed attack upon the steepest ramps of Pramartino. Alongside this, Alejandro Valverde may view this as an opportunity worth investing his efforts into, attempting to see Steven Kruijswijk crack for the first time. Regardless of who instigates it, the general belief is that Nibali will suffer the greatest if all hell breaks loose here; Astana will need to be well prepared.

Outcome:

1st Giovanni Visconti 2nd Nicolas Roche 3rd Tanel Kangert

Giro d'Italia Stage 20 Preview

Giro d’Italia Stage 17 Preview

Course:

As anticipated, yesterday’s tinderbox of a stage was ignited early on as the general classification leaders took the initiative by the scruff of the neck and saw the likes of Vincenzo Nibali and Esteban Chaves lose time to the day’s winning triumvirate of Alejandro Valverde, Steven Kruijswijk and Ilnur Zakarin. Today’s challenge is likely to be a contrasting affair altogether, pulling focus back to the (remaining) sprinters as they are afforded the seldom opportunity of a sprint finish; assuming the breakaway do not have something else to say. The 196km trip from Molveno to Cassano d’Adda has an extended rolling section to begin with, and if the day’s breakaway is comprised of the right riders, it could prove difficult for Trek-Segafredo and Lampre-Merida to bring it back for a sprint.

Giro d'Italia Stage 17 Preview

Contenders:

Giacomo Nizzolo is in the midst of some of his best grand tour form ever at 2016’s Giro d’Italia, though is still yet to secure his maiden win at this level. The Italian has been within touching distance of André Greipel and Marcel Kittel earlier in the race, both of whom have now departed the race (along with Caleb Ewan and Elia Viviani), leaving Nizzolo as the clear favourite for stage honours here in Cassano d’Adda. However, along with his sprinting rivals, Nizzolo has now lost two crucial components in is effective leadout train; Fabian Cancellara and Boy Van Poppel. The result of this should be that Lampre-Merida emerge as the strongest team during the final kilometres, marking Sacha Modolo out as the main man standing between him and grand tour glory.

Sacha Modolo possesses a far superior record at this level than his compatriot Nizzolo, yet has not performed at a comparable level to him at this year’s Giro thus far. However, he now finds himself in a stronger position than his rival thanks to a leadout train which has not suffered the same abandonments as Trek-Segafredo. There is a strong likelihood that Modolo will be allowed to lead everyone else through the final corners as a result of his team’s strength, with a greater battle occurring behind as others fight for his wheel. It would be cruel for Nizzolo to leave the Giro once again without a victory, but Modolo certainly ticks all the boxes as the pantomime villain poised to spoil the fairytale.

Luka Mezgec will now step up to lead Orica-GreenEDGE in the sprints after the young Caleb Ewan left the race last week and will be a danger to the bigger favourites. Mezgec’s wins often come off the back of a tough day in the saddle, so today does not quite fulfil that requirement, but the attritional nature of a grand tour will compensate for this somewhat. Should the Australian outfit miss the day’s breakaway, it seems obvious they will contribute some riders to bring the escapees back, but their focus upon the safety of Esteban Chaves will limit this to a degree.
EDIT – Mezgec has since retired from the race due to a fractured scaphoid.

Alexander Porsev has seen his consistent sprinting at the Giro d’Italia up to now attract him little press, yet few have featured so regularly in the spinrts as the Russian thus far. With a greater reduction in the strength of his rival team’s leadout trains by this point of the race, Porsev may find life a little easier with less wheels to negotiate his way to the front, especially given his small sprint support here.

The breakaway has the potential to cause real trouble here, as the number of teams truly committed to bringing things back together is essentially limited to Trek-Segafredo and Lampre-Merida. Nicola BoemRamunas NavardauskasPim Ligthart and Svein Tuft are just some riders who may have exited yesterday’s tough stage in a strong enough condition to challenge here.

Outcome:

1st Giacomo Nizzolo 2nd Sacha Modolo 3rd Alexander Porsev

Giro d'Italia Stage 20 Preview

GIRO D’ITALIA 2016 – STAGE 16 PREVIEW

Course:

Steven Kruijswijk finds himself still leading the Giro d’Italia after Sunday’s uphill time trial, now doing so with a modest margin of 2′ 12″ to nearest rival Esteban Chaves, while Vincenzo Nibali trails by 2′ 51″ after a poor TT struck by misfortune. With considerable time to regain and only a handful of opportunities before Torino to do so, Stage 16’s 132km yomp from Bressanone to Andalo looks to be a sleeping dragon amongst the race for the maglia rossa.

giro-ditalia-stage-16-previewgiro-ditalia-stage-16-preview

Contenders:

Esteban Chaves may have missed out on taking back t0 back stage wins at this year’s Giro d’Italiabut the time trial did once again reinforce the belief that the diminutive Colombian is the best climber in the race right now. He recorded an impressive split time on the steeper sections of the time trial, faster than Kruijswijk even and would have come closer to the win had the course been a tougher contest throughout. It is definitely touch and go whether a breakaway will decide Stage 16, but if the GC riders do decide stage honours amongst themselves instead, Chaves could make it two wins at the race upon today’s finale.

Alejandro Valverde confirmed our belief that Stage 14’s performance was primarily a blip due to the high altitude, returning to action in the time trial by finishing third and taking time on all his rivals except Kruijswijk. The day’s finale in Andalo looks tailor made for the Movistar captain, with the softer gradients and flatter run into the line allowing him to demonstrate his prowess for accelerating on such terrain before finishing it off with a sprint if required. Much will depend on the very hectic tactics likely to dictate the day’s attacks, but if Movistar assemble a coherent chase on behalf of Valverde, there is every chance he could be part of an elite group which reaches the finish first.

Vincenzo Nibali now has to animate the race with every opportunity if he is to have any chance of chipping away Kruijswijk’s lead by TorinoWith bonus seconds up for grabs along with any stage win, Nibali could definitely attack late on the descent to establish a gap (TdF Stage 2 Sheffield style), after which he would become a difficult man to pull back. Given his urgent need to gain time, it is also worth mentioning that he is no slouch in a sprint finish after a stage like this, so may consider working with another climber in hope of beating them in a sprint for bonus seconds.

Rafal Majka and Ilnur Zakarin offer an interesting dynamic worth taking note of during the latter moments of Stage 16, as the duo are only a couple of seconds apart on the general classification and will have no doubt been ordered to mark one another closely. Of the two riders, today’s stage suits Zakarin the most, potentially allowing the Russian to attack on the final ascent and make a move for the stage victory.

As mentioned previously, the breakaway does certainly have a great chance of making it to the line if the general classification favourites leave it late to really duke it out. Diego UlissiNicolas RocheGiovanni ViscontiJoe Dombrowski, Stefano PirazziRamunas Navardauskas and Riccardo Zoidl could all walk away with the win here.

Outcome:

1st Alejandro Valverde 2nd Ilnur Zakarin 3rd Vincenzo Nibali

Breakaway: 1st Diego Ulissi 2nd Nicolas Roche 3rd Ramunas Navardauskas

Giro d'Italia Stage 20 Preview

GIRO D’ITALIA 2016 – STAGE 15 PREVIEW

Course:

Yesterday’s monstrous Queen Stage of 2016’s Giro d’Italia confirmed that Esteban Chaves, Steven Kruijswijk and Vincenzo Nibali look to be the strongest climbers from the general classification contenders as we approach the third week. Stage 15 throws another potential banana skin beneath the wheels of the favourites today with a 10.8km uphill time trial from Castelrotto to Alpe di Siusi. The almost constant ascent from start to finish is poised to truly begin opening the gaps up on the general classification, potentially extinguishing the ambitions of some riders upon its slopes.

giro-ditalia-stage-15-preview

Contenders:

Esteban Chaves made yesterday’s victory look much easier than it actually was, gauging his efforts neatly within the chasing group to close down Darwin Atapuma and eventually sprinting to victory with a late surge to the line. Given his performance, it is easy to see him as the favourite for Stage 15’s time trial, especially as the contest is more about climbing talent than it is technical time trialling prowess. Assuming that Chaves recovers well overnight, the Colombian has a fantastic chance of making it back to back wins at a grand tour with an impressive climbing performance against the clock.

Vincenzo Nibali may have struggled to follow the day’s decisive move, but given the huge demands and efforts required, it is possible to suggest he has identified today as a way of recouping time having limited his losses yesterday. The biggest issue however is that he did not look like a man in control of his suffering on Stage 14 and instead genuinely looked unable to summon the required strength to follow the likes of Chaves and Kruijswijk when it mattered most. Nibali attacked earlier than expected too, potentially hinting at anxieties regarding his condition by using offence as the best defence. Regardless, this course suits him well and he cannot be discounted purely due to a single off day in a three week grand tour.

Steven Kruijswijk is currently turning in the level of performance which has long be anticipated from the talented Dutch climber and is certain to be one of the fastest home on Stage 15. The trouble for Kruijswijk is that this short time trial is likely to make it difficult for him to truly lay down the power and challenge his rivals. Being a larger and more powerful climber should allow him to gain time on the opening section and later false flat sections though, which could potentially equal enough to give him the win.

Rafal Majka has a good history for performing on days like these and has been one of the stronger climbers at this year’s Giro d’Italia beneath the top tier of Chaves, Kruijswijk and Nibali. The Polish rider is well skilled in measuring his efforts, ranging from time trials to breakaways, so is worth keeping an eye upon here.

Ilnur Zakarin‘s showing thus far has been rather mixed, showcasing a threatening sharpness in the first week, before then diminishing somewhat after several crashes during the earlier rain-soaked time trial. Unlike Nibali, Zakarin did appear to be pacing himself in the wake of the attacks today, so potentially stands to be one of the fresher GC contenders on Stage 15. The Russian is a time trial specialist who has grown to become a convincing climber, so today’s task should play to his strengths perfectly. His time here is likely to provide us with a strong indication of his chances of finishing the third week with a chance of a podium place too.

Alejandro Valverde was one of the first to be dropped after Nibali, Chaves and Kruijswijk all exchanged attacks and sent him sliding out the back door. The Spanish rider has done little to convince people of his form at this Giro thus far, but given his time trialling capabilities, he should turn in a respectable time; even if it does not threaten for the win.

Sebastian Henao, Domenico Pozzovivo, Primoz Roglic, Michele Scarponi and Stefano Pirazzi are all names likely to fill the day’s top ten placings.

Outcome:

1st Esteban Chaves 2nd Vincenzo Nibali 3rd Steven Kruijswijk